Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Power Tools, September 2010

What could you do with one more hour a day?

Summer's over, so it's back to school for the kids and back to business for the rest of us. As you take a look at what lies ahead, it's easy to come to the conclusion there simply isn't enough time to get everything you want accomplished. You can't squeeze one more day out of the week or one more week out of the year, but you can find an extra hour each day without much trouble at all.

How to find that extra hour.

The truth is, people spend much more time than they realize watching TV, entertaining themselves on the web, and sleeping more than they really need to. If you just try to cut down on the amount of time you spend on the couch or in bed, you can easily find yourself with an hour of time a day available to grow your business.

All it takes is for you to rethink your schedule a little, making simple changes to your usual patterns. Instead of hitting the snooze button, try getting up earlier. This lets you get a pile of work done before the phone starts ringing and the emails begin piling up. Early rising also lets you work with clients and contacts in time zones to the east of you, while it's still early in the day for them. Instead of watching TV, use that time to answer emails, rather than letting emails take up valuable work time during the day.

An extra hour a day for your business gives you an extra 20 hours of work each month, which adds up to 240 hours per year. That's 10 whole days, or two full work weeks. Just think of the value of that in dollars per hour!

What to do with that extra hour.

• Read and learn how to do your job better and how to market yourself better. Dive into relevant information from trade associations. Take a look at what types of marketing your competition is doing. Find out more about how to use all the online and off-line ways to deliver your message. Look at your own marketing efforts, discard what isn't working, and try something you haven't done before.

• Do the kind of serious strategic planning that will set up your growth for the future. Where is your business going? What kind of services should you add? Who else should you be targeting? Can you expand geographically? Where do you want to be in your business -- and in your life 5 years from now? -- 10 years from now?

• Then start executing. Write an article to submit to local newspapers and industry websites. Update the content on your own website and add a new feature, such as a blog. Submit comments to other people's blogs that talk to your audience. Put together an email campaign that links to your blog or website. Come up with a tag line and put it on new business cards. Develop a direct mail list and think of a compelling offer you can send out on an inexpensive post card.

You'll be surprised at how much more you can get accomplished with just a few changes to your work habits and just a touch more discipline. Jump ahead of your competitors while they're still asleep...and make a lot more money with a lot less stress. Try it. And have a great month!

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© 2010 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Market Update for the week of September 27, 2010

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE As promised, last week's reports gave us a complete picture of the housing market in August. Housing Starts rose 10.5% month-over-month to a 598,000 annual rate, well ahead of the expected 550,000 number. Building Permits, which reflect builder sentiment further out, grew a more modest 1.8% month-over-month to a slightly smaller 569,000 annual rate. Thursday, Existing Home Sales came in UP 7.6% over July, at a 4.13 million annual rate. But let's remember, July was a record low, so this gain still left sales down 19% from August a year ago. The median price for Existing Homes, however, ticked up 0.8% year-over-year, as reported by the National Association of Realtors.

Friday saw New Home Sales for August come in unchanged from the previous month, meeting expectations at a 288,000 annual rate. The increases in Existing Home Sales and Housing Starts are welcome, as is the lack of a drop in New Home Sales. But sales are still at fairly weak levels. Observers feel that with the government tax credit, we had an artificial boost in home sales, so what followed was obviously an artificial low and we're now slowly climbing back toward normalcy.

>> Review of Last Week

FOUR IN A ROW... The stock market opened the week strongly, but then lost ground for three days before the bulls were back in control igniting a big rally on Friday, just shy of a 200 point gain for the day. This put stocks UP for the fourth straight week, with the Dow again nearing 11,000 and the broad-based S&P 500 hitting a four-month high.

It was a mixed bag of economic data once again. Housing numbers, covered above, were showing some signs of recovery, but then initial jobless claims grew to 465,000, higher than anticipated and indicating the labor market is still soft. The week ended with Durable Goods Orders down for August.

But the big event was the Federal Reserve meeting Tuesday. They left the fed funds rate unchanged as expected. They also kept policy statement language that says economic conditions are likely to keep the rate at exceptionally low levels for "an extended period." But they have now added that the Fed is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed. Some think this is what sent stocks up, as investors felt they couldn't lose. If the economy improves, stocks will go up. If the economy stalls, the Fed will step in, so stocks will still go up! We'll see.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 2.4%, to 10860.26; the S&P 500 was UP 2.1%, to 1148.67; and the Nasdaq was UP 2.8%, to 2381.22.

Bonds were on the move up and down all week, and Friday was a down day as investors flocked to those rallying stocks. Yet for the week, the FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended UP 8 basis points, closing at $102.17. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of national average mortgage rates reported fixed-rate mortgages not budging from their historically low levels.

>> This Week’s Forecast

CONSUMERS, Q2 GDP, INFLATION... Economic reports on the consumer's September mindset bookend the week, with Consumer Confidence expected off a tad on Tuesday but Michigan Consumer Sentiment up a fraction come Friday.

Thursday features the third estimate of Q2 GDP numbers, but no change is expected from the prior reading, which showed a slower 1.6% growth rate. Friday's Personal Spending and Core PCE Prices for August should reveal inflation still well under control.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of September 27 – October 1



>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months The policy statement from last week's FOMC meeting preserved the language that the Fed would probably keep rates low for "an extended period." The statement also added that the central bank was ready to provide more accommodation if needed, so economists do not expect to see any change in the Fed funds rate well into next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%:


Probability of change from current policy:



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© 2010 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.



Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Your Fall & Winter Maintenance Checklist


The best way to avoid expensive repairs in the future is to keep up with home maintenance today. Here's what to do this time of year. Check the items that apply to your home and locale.

Tune up that furnace. Hire an HVAC professional and make sure everything's checked–filters, chimney exhaust, blower, fuel connections; the works. Inspect furnace filters monthly and change when dirty. Install a programmable thermostat to save on energy bills, but if you have a heat pump, be sure the thermostat has been especially designed for that system.

Shut down the evaporative cooler. If you use an evaporative (swamp) cooler for air conditioning, turn off the water supply, drain the lines so they don't freeze, clean mineral buildup in the tank with vinegar and a brush, and unplug the pump. Put a plastic or canvas cover over the cooler and attach it with bungee cords.

Close the storm windows. Check that the outer pane is up and the inner one down and that both are sealed against the frame.

Insulate a whole-house fan. If you use one to cool your home in summer, close it up with an insulated box or cover for the winter. This prevents heated air from entering the attic, which can create moisture, causing mold and stains on the ceiling below. You can make a foam box yourself using duct tape, weather-stripping, and 2-inch-thick polystyrene foam.

Test the sump pump. If you use one to get water out of your basement, check to see if it's working. If it has a float valve, raise the valve to see if it turns on. If it's water-activated, run water from a hose into the sump to see if it works. For problems, check connections, reset button, and circuit breaker before you call in a plumber or electrician.

Inspect the roof. Look at roof shingles as well as the flashing around chimneys and vents. You may have to call in a roofing contractor to seal gaps and replace shingles. Also, if your area gets a lot of moisture and moss forms on the roof, treat it with moss-killing liquids or granules. Be sure to get the moss killers for roofs and not lawns and follow directions.

Clean the gutters. Leaves and other debris left in your gutters can damage them and push freezing water under roof shingles. Dirt can even collect in covered gutters, so lift covers and clean them too.

Weather-strip and caulk. Look around the house outside and caulk any gaps where window, door, and corner trim meets siding. Remove and replace any old weather-stripping around doors and windows.

Put away the lawn and garden equipment. In cooler climates, put away garden tools, hoses, nozzles, and patio furniture you won't be using till the spring, so they're not damaged by snow and ice. Run the lawn mower until the gas tank is empty.

Winterize lawn sprinkler systems and disconnect hoses. If the temperature goes below freezing in your area, water left in hoses or pipes can freeze and burst them. Drain water from lawn irrigation systems, which may have to be done by a professional. If outside faucets are not self-draining, turn off water at the shutoff valve inside.

Prune trees. Once leaves are gone, cut back trees or bushes near the house where snow may cause branches to rub against the roof or siding.

Cover an outside AC unit. If it's under trees or roof runoff, put a plywood sheet and drop cloth over it. Don't seal off the unit, which traps moisture and creates a nice little home for rodents.

Check drainage around the house. Where ground meets foundation, make sure soil isn't touching any siding and that it slopes away, dropping 6 inches in the first 10 feet. If you have a surface or sub-surface drainage system, check for blockage if you see pooling water when it rains. Remove debris or call a landscape contractor for repairs.

Spend a weekend or two checking up on these items and you'll save energy and catch problems before they cost a ton of money to fix. Good luck! As always, please feel free to contact us at any time about any matters relating to home financing or refinancing.

... Have a great day!




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© 2010 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; CA Dept. of Corporations- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.

Monday, September 20, 2010

Market Update for the week of September 20, 2010

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE Fannie Mae released a survey showing 70% of those polled in June and July feel now is a good time to buy a home. This is up from a 64% reading in January. At the same time, 83% of those surveyed think it's a bad time to sell, which isn't such a terrible thing, since there's still plenty of inventory for buyers to choose from.

Another group of industry observers concluded that sales of existing homes hit bottom in July and will rebound in the fall. They based this on recent reports for purchase mortgage applications and pending home sales, which track signed purchase contracts for existing homes.

The fact remains, homes are now more affordable for more people than they've been in years. And today's historically low mortgage rates make monthly payments much easier to work into the family budget. Prices may have bottomed out indeed. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes show that nationally, home prices are 3.6% above levels a year ago. For buyers who expect to live in their home a while, many observers feel this is clearly a very smart time to purchase.

>>>> Review of Last Week

UP YET AGAIN... For investors on Wall Street, positive feelings continue to prevail over negative vibes and uncertainties, as stocks closed higher for the third week in a row. All the major market indexes were up, with the extra strength of the tech sector pushing the Nasdaq up well over 3%. In addition, all three indexes are now UP for the year.

Worrying investors, and everyone, were things like Thursday's report that the U.S. poverty rate was at a 16-year high. Other data showed that real median household income last year was essentially unchanged over 2008. No surprise then that Friday's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at its lowest level since August a year ago. The day before, the Producer Price Index reported wholesale inflation a bit higher than anticipated, which got some analysts concerned that consumers might see price hikes next.

Those fears were quelled Friday with Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings that had inflation well under control at the retail level. And the 1.1% year-over-year gain in the CPI showed that those who feared deflation have nothing to worry about for now. Other encouraging signs included a rise in Industrial Production for August that met expectations and August Retail Sales that beat forecasts, evidence that consumers may be worried, but they're still spending!

For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.4%, to 10607.85; the S&P 500 was UP 1.4%, to 1125.59; and the Nasdaq was UP 3.3%, to 2315.61.

It was another mixed week in the bond market, but prices held up enough. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended a mere 5 basis points ahead for the week, closing at $102.09. National average mortgage rates continue at historically low levels, though some observers do expect them to move up a little by the end of the year.

>>>> This Week’s Forecast

WOO-HOO, HOUSING AND THE FED!... This week features our two favorite topics. The Fed's an easy forecast, as virtually no one breathing thinks they'll hike the Funds Rate at their meeting on Tuesday. As usual, however, their policy statement will bear scrutiny, as analysts look for signals that the rate could rise any time soon.

Tuesday's August Housing Starts should finally show a slight uptick in activity. August Building Permits are also expected to be up a little, even though home builders remain cautious. Some experts feel we're starting to turn the corner in housing, as a bit of growth is predicted in Thursday's August Existing Home Sales and Friday's August New Home Sales.

>>>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of September 20 – September 24


>>>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Last week's Consumer Price Index report showed inflation still under control. So with economic growth slowing, economists overwhelmingly believe the Fed will keep rates where they are at this week's FOMC meeting and well into next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%:


Probability of change from current policy:


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© 2010 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; CA Dept. of Corporations- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Market Update for the week of September 13, 2010

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE Last week included a few interesting takes on where things are at in the housing market. We first got the news that purchase mortgage applications last week were at their highest level since May, UP 6.3% over the week before. It's nice to see buying interest starting to rebound after the tax credit expiration. But we do have a bit of a way to go, as last week's number was still 38.8% below where it was a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

One source of new buyers for sure is the huge number of people for whom homes are now way more affordable. For families making the national median income, the share of homes they can afford stayed above 70% for the sixth quarter in a row as tracked by the Housing Opportunity Index (HOI). The National Association of Home Builders, which co-sponsors the HOI, said this affordability was the result of low home prices and favorable mortgage rates. The NAHB chairman commented, "Homeownership is within reach of more households than it has been for almost a generation...with house prices starting to stabilize, conditions are beginning to draw homebuyers back into the market..."


>>>> Review of Last Week

SQUEAKING UP... We had just four days of trading last week for investors to show us how they feel about the economic prospects going forward. Coming back from Labor Day, stocks sank on Tuesday, with the Dow 147 points down. But during the next three days, traders slowly pushed prices back up enough that all three major stock indexes squeaked into positive territory for the second week in a row. And the Dow remains UP for the year.

It was an unusually quiet week for economic news but, as usual, both positive and negative information competed for our attention. Wednesday, the Fed released its latest Beige Book containing economic views from the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks. They noted continued growth but with widespread signs of a deceleration. Hiring is being held down by the availability of part time workers, home sales have slowed since the tax credit, and manufacturing is expanding at a slower pace. But commercial real estate shows signs of stabilizing, consumer spending is up despite cautious attitudes, and travel and tourism are up.

Thursday's news included a $7 billion drop in the trade deficit for July, the rest of the world buying $2.8 billion more U.S. goods and services than they did in June. New weekly unemployment claims continue to drop, by 27,000, to 451,000. This is still not a great number but at least it's trending in the right direction. Most experts feel that the employment situation is closely tied to the health of the housing market.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 0.1%, to 10462.77; the S&P 500 was UP 0.5%, to 1109.55; and the Nasdaq was UP 0.4%, to 2242.48.

The bond market had an up-and-down time of it over the four days, finishing off at the lows. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 23 basis points for the week, closing at $102.04. Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed national average mortgage rates still historically low, but leveling out. Three out of four mortgage types they track were flat or increased slightly over the prior week.

>>>> This Week’s Forecast


THE BIG ECONOMIC PICTURE (ALMOST)... We get lots of economic news this week, the sole exception being any reports on our beloved housing market. There's Retail Sales on Tuesday, expected to still be up, though at a slower pace. Wednesday has manufacturing, which continues its slow but steady recovery, as measured by the Empire State Index, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization. We get wholesale inflation with the Producer Price Index and inflation for the rest of us with the Consumer Price Index, both of which should show prices under control and deflation not a threat. We end with University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, expected to reveal a lessening of fear over a double-dip recession.


>>>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of September 13 – September 17


>>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Last week's Fed Beige Book didn't alter the opinions of any economists, who overwhelmingly believe the Fed will keep rates low well into next year. A boost in inflation or the recovery could change things of course. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.


Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%:


Probability of change from current policy:



----------------------

© 2010 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; CA Dept. of Corporations- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Market Update for the week of September 6, 2010


INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE Last Thursday, July Pending Home Sales came in UP 5.2%. This measure of signed contracts on existing homes indicates we should see an increase in Existing Home Sales for August and September. Some analysts feel it shows the start of positive market movement after the end of the tax credit, which pushed signed contracts forward into April. We now have a new batch of buyers looking to take advantage of today's affordable prices and historically low mortgage rates.

Speaking of prices, Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported home prices UP 1.0% from May to June in 20 major U.S. cities. This was the index's third straight gain, which many experts feel came from the increased demand due to the tax credits. So sellers still need to be flexible, since not as many eager buyers are now in the market. But prices do seem to be stabilizing, so buyers would do well to act on a property they like, rather than hold out for any significant price declines going forward.

National average mortgage rates have recently been at historic lows. But in their latest forecast, Mortgage Bankers Association economists see rates going up slightly in the last three months of the year, rising a bit above that for 2011, then perhaps up another percentage point by the end of 2012. More reason for buyers and refinancers to not drag their feet!

>>>> Review of Last Week

POSITIVE WITH NEGATIVES... The U.S. economy keeps delivering mixed signals, but this week investors on Wall Street let a positive vibe drive the proceedings. Stocks went up four days in a row, ending with a big rally Friday driven by an August Employment report that was by no means great, but better than the downbeat readings that were expected. All three major stock indexes ended up for the week with the Dow now up for the year.

There were notable negatives that continue to show the pace of recovery has slowed. The ISM Services Index came in below estimates indicating modest growth in the non-manufacturing sector. Consumer inflation was UP 0.2% in July and UP 1.5% over a year ago. This is still within the Fed's acceptable range, although some economists think inflation should start rising noticeably next year. Personal income was up 0.2% for July, but this was below what the consensus expected. Finally, final Q2 Productivity dropped to a 1.8% annual rate, a bigger dip than previously estimated.

Positive signs included the ISM Manufacturing index, reported up for July instead of down as expected. August Consumer Confidence also beat expectations. But the big news came with Friday's Employment Report. The U.S. economy lost 54,000 nonfarm jobs in August, far less than the 100,000+ job losses expected. The private sector added 67,000 jobs, while upward revisions to the two prior months took the net gain to 133,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings were UP 0.3% for the month and UP 1.9% this year. But unemployment ticked up to 9.6%, due to an increase in the work force. So even though the report played well on Wall Street, it didn't on Main Street.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 2.9%, to 10447.93; the S&P 500 was UP 3.7%, to 1104.51; and the Nasdaq was UP 3.7%, to 2233.75.

Bond prices held up for most of the week, but Friday's jobs report surprise kept things in check. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended UP 7 basis points for the week, closing at $102.27. Again, Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed national average fixed rates for conforming mortgages at historic low levels.

>>>>  This Week’s Forecast

TAKING A BREAK...This week truly is a break from the hectic pace of economic reports we've seen lately. The Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday will give us another take on the central bank's view of the economic recovery, as reported from Federal Reserve Districts across the country. Observers look to this survey for signs of where Fed policy decisions may be heading in the future. We will continue to watch Thursday's Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, as experts are predicting a slow improvement there. Thursday's July Trade Balance is expected to be down slightly from the prior month, perhaps signaling more demand for our goods overseas.


>>>>  The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of September 6 – September 10



>>>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Economists believe the Fed will keep rates low well into next year unless we get a boost in inflation or the recovery. Virtually no one expects either of those things just yet. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%:



Probability of change from current policy:





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