At the 2011 PrimeLending Sales Rally, Dawn Robinson, our Senior Vice President of National Production, inspired us all. As the Super Bowl was held within days of our rally, this was timely. Here are a few segments:
How do you predict the winner?
Some would say the number of fans you have is one indication of who will win. The more people you have in the seats of the stadium or the more people you have watching from home is directly correlated to winning.
At PrimeLending, I’m proud to say that we have a good number of people cheering for us. Our Customer Satisfaction Surveys clearly reflect our clients are among our fans, with positive responses numbering well into the tens of thousands. In every category measured, our rankings start with a 93% approval rating and just go up from there.
In the same way, we know a few of the most important fans for you are the ones you have at home. What you do is so important, but we also know the reasons you do what you do are even more important. You can trust that our Core Conviction of a People Centric Culture includes your family. Knowing how important they are to you makes them important to us.
Some say winning is clinched by having the home field advantage. Playing on your own turf makes the difference. You’re familiar with your surroundings, you know the systems, you know the fans, the cheers. You’re comfortable when playing at home.
At PrimeLending, you all should feel like you are playing with the home field advantage. We have the ability to lend in all 50 states, so with our resources, no matter where in the country you are, you can help a family close on a home anywhere in the United States. You aren’t limited. Likewise, those that work with and for you at the Corporate office are just a phone call or email away. Yes, we may be in different cities, different area codes, and different time zones, but regardless of where your desk sits, your Corporate support is always nearby. No matter where your branch is located, we want you to feel comfortable, supported and safe. With PrimeLending, you are home.
Some would say the team that wins is the team that has the best staff. Each team you see playing football is made up of more than just who you see in uniform on the playing field. Assistant coaches, trainers, equipment managers, and so many others provide support to the team in every way. There’s a team you don’t see, behind the team you do see.
At PrimeLending, you have the best people behind you. Our departments know that you are our team on the field, and each person in those areas works hard every day so that you can play the game better. The stories of success from our different departments can never be told separately from stories of your success. We work to improve our systems, not to make our jobs easier but to make your job easier. As our Core Convictions state, we are One Team/One Purpose. You, the team on the field, are our driving force and our daily focus.
To be continued...
Please watch for Part Two of her inspiring talk as we continue to share how with PrimeLending, EVERYONE WINS!
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INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... There's good news in the latest housing market forecast for 2011 from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). After dipping 4.8% last year, sales of existing homes are predicted to grow 7.9% this year, to 5.3 million. The gain for 2012 is forecast to be a little less, up 4.5%, to 5.53 million. The existing home median price went up 0.3% in 2010, a nice recovery from the 12.9% price drop of 2009. For 2011, the NAR sees it rising 0.5%, to $173,000, then another 2.4%, to $177,900, in 2012.
New home sales are forecast to come back more briskly, up 17.7% in 2011, following their 15.5% drop in 2010. The 2012 projection is for a strong 51.1% sales gain, to 565,000 homes. The median price for new homes, which gained 2.2% last year, should go up another 1.8% in 2011, to $224,700, then 1.9% in 2012, to $229,000. The NAR's chief economist says this rebound in home sales does depend on an improvement in the jobs market. Affordability also matters and in Q4 of 2010 housing was the most affordable on record, according to NAR numbers going back to 1971. The NAR feels the current situation of low home prices along with low interest rates should continue.
>>> Review of Last Week
HELLO, 12,000!... Last week saw strong corporate earnings, more indications the economy is healing, and Ben Bernanke telling the National Press Club the Fed won't be withdrawing its policy support anytime soon. The net result? The Dow shot up five days in a row, crossing the 12,000 threshold and staying there, trading near its highest levels since the middle of 2008. All three major indexes delivered impressive gains, with the S&P 500 enjoying its best January since 1997. Investors shrugged off worries the Egyptian protests might further de-stabilize the whole Mideast.
Corporate earnings are running way ahead of expectations and, even more encouraging, future earnings estimates are up. The week's star performers included mammoth Exxon Mobil, drug biggie Pfizer, and video gamer Electronic Arts. The vast majority of companies reporting beat their Q4 earnings expectations, as retailers chimed in with better than expected monthly same store sales results for January.
Investors also liked the economic data. Q4 productivity was up 2.6%, proving that, yes, we ARE working harder. But we're also being compensated for that extra effort, as personal income rose in December along with personal spending, which helps fire up the economy. But things aren't overheating yet, since Core PCE Prices, the inflation number the Fed watches, was up just 0.7% the past year. ISM Manufacturing and Services indexes both showed strong economic growth. The January Employment Report showed a gain of just 36,000 jobs, but this was put to the unusually bad weather preventing people from working -- several hundred thousand more than usual. Private sector payrolls were up 50,000, their 11th monthly gain in a row, which helped drop the unemployment rate to 9.0%.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 2.3%, at 12,092; the S&P 500 was UP 2.7%, to 1,311; and the Nasdaq shot UP 3.1%, ending at 2,769.
While stocks soared higher, bonds got hammered. Even the Egyptian unrest couldn't ignite a flight to safety, as investors wanting to catch the rising wave of stock prices took their money out of bonds. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended down 187 basis points for the week, closing at $97.22. In spite of this drop, news of an improving economy and low inflation kept mortgage rates at historically low levels. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages reported average fixed-rate mortgage rates pretty much unchanged.
>>> This Week’s Forecast
A QUIET WEEK... We'll have the usual weekly and continuing jobless claims, and no one is expecting huge drops in these numbers just yet. Optimistic observers expect serious declines in claims in another month or so. We'll also see the December Trade Balance showing imports growing versus exports, although U.S. companies' export revenues are still strong, a good thing. Finally, consumer confidence in the economy is forecast to be growing, at least the way the February Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index sees it on Friday.
>>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of February 7 – February 11:
>>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke before the National Press Club last week and certainly left the impression that the Funds Rate will stay at its rock bottom level for a decent while longer. This week's economic reports shouldn't inspire the Fed to hike the Rate any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%:
Probability of change from current policy:
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© 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Last week was packed with housing market data and the news does keep getting better even though the media hasn't caught on quite yet. Wednesday saw December New Home Sales UP 17.5%, blowing away forecasts with a 329,000 annual rate. The supply of new homes dropped to 6.9 months and the new homes inventory slid to 190,000, down 66.8% from its 2006 peak and at the lowest level since 1968. More good news came with an 8.5% boost in the median home price versus a year ago, to $241,500, its highest level since April 2008. The average home price registered a 4.7% gain compared to a year ago.
Speaking of prices, the Case-Shiller home price index for the 20 largest metro areas was down 0.5% in November, better than expected. Although prices are off 1.6% in the past year, they're still up 1.2% from the low they hit in May 2009. Inspired by the November slip, pundits fretted about a possible "double dip" in housing prices. But a chart of the Case-Shiller index for the 10 largest metro areas shows the trend in prices, adjusted for inflation, is essentially flat, perhaps rising a bit, since early last year. And the nominal value of the index is almost 5% ABOVE its April 2009 low. A rational mind might conclude housing prices have finally bottomed, 5 years after hitting their peak.
Buyers are supporting this notion, sending Pending Home Sales, tracking contracts signed on existing homes, UP 2.0% in December. This report has now had three strong months in a row, so existing homes sales, tracking actual closings, should stay on the increase in January.
>>> Review of Last Week
LET'S NOT GET CARRIED AWAY... Just as we were all set to celebrate an eight-week winning streak for the stock market, Friday treated us to the biggest one-day drop in months, with the Dow falling 166 points on fears over Egyptian unrest. As oil prices rose, investors seeking safety sold off their equity positions, but losses were modest in the end. All three major indexes were down for the week by half a percent or less.
The economic data keeps offering encouragement, but Wall Street always first looks to corporate earnings to gauge how we're doing. Last week saw 14 Dow components reporting Q4 numbers and 11 of them did better than expected. Some missed their revenue targets and issued lukewarm guidance going forward. But overall, the corporate earnings picture continues to show a preponderance of strong performances in spite of the slow rate of economic recovery.
Durable Goods Orders were down in December but this was almost all due to a drop in volatile civilian aircraft. Orders for "core" capital goods are actually UP two months in a row. Weekly initial jobless claims were up, but they included the prior week's claims that were delayed by snowstorms in the South. Housing showed the upbeat signs mentioned above. Best of all, the first estimate for Q4 GDP came in at a 3.2% annual growth rate. This was a little lower than expected, but exports were super strong and consumer spending was UP a very healthy 4.4% annually, its fastest rate in almost five years.
For the week, the Dow ended down 0.4%, at 11824; the S&P 500 was off 0.5%, to 1276; but the Nasdaq dropped just 0.1%, ending at 2687.
Bonds prices were helped by some well-received auctions Wednesday and Thursday, followed by the flight to safety on Friday, courtesy of falling stocks. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended UP 78 basis points for the week, closing at $99.09. This bodes well for mortgage rates, although Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages reported average fixed-rate mortgage rates inching up slightly, thanks to the strengthening economy. Still, mortgage rates do remain at super low levels.
>>> This Week’s Forecast
FOCUSING ON WHAT THE FED FOCUSES ON... The Fed has a dual mandate of controlling inflation and supporting job growth. What happens with the Fed Funds Rate depends on what's going on in those two areas, which bracket this week's economic news. Monday, we get the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, Core PCE Prices, expected to stay well under control. Friday's January Employment Report is forecast to add 150,000 jobs, which is all to the good, but not enough to prevent the unemployment rate from edging up a tad as the workforce grows.
Other key economic indicators include Monday's Chicago PMI take on Midwest manufacturing, Tuesday's ISM manufacturing index and Thursday's ISM services index. All are expected to continue to show expansion, with readings over 50.
>>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of January 31 – February 4
>>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months The Fed's statement coming out of last week's meeting continued to tout their view that the Funds Rate needs to stay at its rock bottom level until the recovery picks up considerably. This week's economic reports shouldn't inspire the Fed to hike the Rate any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%:
Probability of change from current policy:
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© 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.
