Do an insurance checkup to protect your biggest investment
PLUS...Safeguard your cell phone from hackers!
Your homeowners' insurance covers your biggest investment. Plus, the liability insurance that comes with it protects the rest of your assets. But most people don't think about insurance until they have a loss and if they don't have enough coverage, by then it's too late.
The right time to think about insurance is once a year, every year. Meet with your insurance agent and review the "Coverage Limits" page of your policy. This lists the maximum amount the insurer will pay under each type of coverage.
1. Building/Dwelling Coverage. This is the maximum you will receive to completely replace your home--structure, roof, doors, walls, windows, kitchen, bathrooms, heating and cooling systems-everything. Take the cost per square foot for new construction in your area and multiply that by the square footage of your home to arrive at the coverage you need. Ask your insurance agent if you should also have "Extended Replacement Coverage" and "Building Ordinance Upgrade" coverage. The value of your land usually doesn't require insurance.
2. Personal Property Coverage. This insures everything in your home--clothes, furniture, electronics, flatware, small appliances, etc. You should have enough coverage to replace it all in the event of a total loss. Special items like good jewelry, artwork, coin collections, etc., might have to be insured on a separate "rider" to get their full value in the event of a loss.
3. Liability Coverage. Homeowners' insurance normally includes liability protection if someone is injured on your property. The usual coverage is $100,000 or $300,000, which is enough if your net worth is less than that. If your assets are larger, ask about an "Umbrella" policy to take your coverage to $1 million or more. It won't cost that much more for complete peace of mind.
4. Find out what isn't covered. Things like earthquakes, floods, other special occurrences and business activities are usually not covered in a standard homeowners' policy. Ask your agent if it makes sense to get separate coverage if available.
5. Consider raising your deductibles. In the event of a loss, the deductible is the amount you pay first, out of pocket, before the insurance covers the rest, up to your policy limit. Raising your deductible will lower your premium, but it requires you to pay more if you have a loss.
KEEP HACKERS OUT OF YOUR CELLPHONE!
Cell phone hacking has been in the spotlight, thanks to the activities of British journalists from Rupert Murdoch's News of the World. Their illegal actions may have interfered with criminal investigations, clearly invaded the privacy of celebrities and quickly resulted in the 100-year-old tabloid shutting down, having lost the support of its advertisers.
One good thing to come out of this is people are now aware of how vulnerable their cell phone voicemails are. Journalists may not be interested in us, but why let curious strangers listen to our messages, much less ex-partners or bosses.
To protect your cell phone and keep those voicemail messages private, always create your own security PIN code for your cell phone voicemail. Most people don't bother to change the default PIN code that came with the phone. It's very easy for hackers to find this default PIN for any cell phone brand or network. Once they do, they can access your voicemails from almost any phone on the planet.
If you don't know how to set up your own security PIN code, call your cell phone network customer service number or visit their website. Come up with a PIN code that's hard to crack. DON'T use your birthday, street or apartment number or zip code. As a final precaution, always delete cell phone messages once you listen to them.
P.S. Thinking of upsizing, downsizing or staying put? With today’s affordable home prices and near historic low home loan rates it makes sense to call or email now to discuss your situation.
We're always glad to answer any questions.... Have a great day!
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© 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Monday, August 15, 2011
Inside Lending Newsletter - 8-15-11
Please note: We all know mortgage rates are extremely low and refinance activity has increased; however, our primary focus is, and always will be, on providing professional, caring service to our partners. Thank you for trusting us to get the job done for you and your clients.
>> Market Update
QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Fear tends to manifest itself much more quickly than greed, so volatile markets tend to be on the downside."--Philip Roth
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...It certainly was a volatile week for stocks (see below), but mortgage rates just calmly headed lower. This of course was directly related to the turbulent stock market, which sent investors to the relative safety of bonds, pushing mortgage bond prices up and interest rates down. Last week, rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hit a new low for the year, while rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and 1-year ARMs all registered new all-time lows. Small wonder purchase loan demand was up a bit over a year ago.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported the median sale price for existing single-family homes fell 2.8% in Q2 compared to a year ago. Yet 41 metro areas saw price gains, up from 34 in Q1. The NAR's chief economist said, "Median home prices have been moving up and down in a relatively narrow range in many markets, which shows a stabilization trend." Another survey showed two-thirds of the markets reported bigger price gains in Q2 versus Q1.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Maintaining a high level of customer service is key to success. Have customers fill out customer satisfaction surveys to pinpoint areas that need improvement. Ask for testimonials and post them on your website.
>> Review of Last Week
FASTEN YOUR SEATBELTS...Last week's stock market gave investors a very bumpy ride. As of Thursday, the Dow had changed direction each day for the prior seven. Things calmed down Friday enough to deliver a second day of gains, leaving all three market indexes down for the week just a tad. In case you were in a news blackout, the negatives the media kept hammering were: S&P's downgrade of U.S. debt, worries over European banks and "double dip" recession fears.
The Fed met Tuesday, said the recovery is "considerably slower" than expected, so they'll keep the Funds Rate at 0.0%-0.25% "at least through mid-2013." Consumer confidence hit its lowest level since 1980, probably because it was measured during the debt ceiling fiasco. There is still no hard evidence we're falling into recession. In fact, for July, Retail Sales posted their biggest gain in four months, UP 0.5%, and UP 8.5% in the last year. Initial jobless claims fell to 395,000, way below April's high of 474,000. The economy isn't booming, but it isn't collapsing either.
For the week, the Dow ended down 1.5%, to 11269; the S&P 500 was down 1.7%, to 1179; and the Nasdaq was down 1%, to 2508.
There were enough stock market swings and economic worries to send investors to the safety of bonds. With current higher bond prices, we will now be tracking the FNMA 3.5% bond, which closed on Friday at $101.05. National average mortgage rates edged down to some new record lows, as covered above.
DID YOU KNOW?...A "constant dollar plan," or "dollar cost averaging," is an investment strategy to reduce volatility. Securities are bought in fixed dollar amounts at regular intervals, no matter which way the market is moving. So, as prices rise, fewer shares are bought and when prices fall, more are purchased.
>> This Week’s Forecast
HOME BUILDING, EXISTING HOME SALES, INFLATION, MANUFACTURING...This week's broad look at things economic features July Housing Starts and Building Permits on Tuesday, expected off a little, followed by Thursday's July Existing Home Sales, forecast up, heading back to the 5 million per year level. PPI wholesale inflation and CPI consumer inflation are predicted to stay well within the Fed's guidelines.
We'll also see some key reads on manufacturing, with the Empire State Index for the New York region expected up, but the Philadelphia Fed Index for that area down from the prior month.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of Aug 15 – Aug 19
>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...The Fed's pronouncement after last week's FOMC meeting told us the rate will stay rock bottom for the next two years. Nothing's ever certain, though, so the probability of change stays a smidge above 0. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
Probability of change from current policy:
--------------
© 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.
>> Market Update
QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Fear tends to manifest itself much more quickly than greed, so volatile markets tend to be on the downside."--Philip Roth
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...It certainly was a volatile week for stocks (see below), but mortgage rates just calmly headed lower. This of course was directly related to the turbulent stock market, which sent investors to the relative safety of bonds, pushing mortgage bond prices up and interest rates down. Last week, rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hit a new low for the year, while rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and 1-year ARMs all registered new all-time lows. Small wonder purchase loan demand was up a bit over a year ago.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported the median sale price for existing single-family homes fell 2.8% in Q2 compared to a year ago. Yet 41 metro areas saw price gains, up from 34 in Q1. The NAR's chief economist said, "Median home prices have been moving up and down in a relatively narrow range in many markets, which shows a stabilization trend." Another survey showed two-thirds of the markets reported bigger price gains in Q2 versus Q1.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Maintaining a high level of customer service is key to success. Have customers fill out customer satisfaction surveys to pinpoint areas that need improvement. Ask for testimonials and post them on your website.
>> Review of Last Week
FASTEN YOUR SEATBELTS...Last week's stock market gave investors a very bumpy ride. As of Thursday, the Dow had changed direction each day for the prior seven. Things calmed down Friday enough to deliver a second day of gains, leaving all three market indexes down for the week just a tad. In case you were in a news blackout, the negatives the media kept hammering were: S&P's downgrade of U.S. debt, worries over European banks and "double dip" recession fears.
The Fed met Tuesday, said the recovery is "considerably slower" than expected, so they'll keep the Funds Rate at 0.0%-0.25% "at least through mid-2013." Consumer confidence hit its lowest level since 1980, probably because it was measured during the debt ceiling fiasco. There is still no hard evidence we're falling into recession. In fact, for July, Retail Sales posted their biggest gain in four months, UP 0.5%, and UP 8.5% in the last year. Initial jobless claims fell to 395,000, way below April's high of 474,000. The economy isn't booming, but it isn't collapsing either.
For the week, the Dow ended down 1.5%, to 11269; the S&P 500 was down 1.7%, to 1179; and the Nasdaq was down 1%, to 2508.
There were enough stock market swings and economic worries to send investors to the safety of bonds. With current higher bond prices, we will now be tracking the FNMA 3.5% bond, which closed on Friday at $101.05. National average mortgage rates edged down to some new record lows, as covered above.
DID YOU KNOW?...A "constant dollar plan," or "dollar cost averaging," is an investment strategy to reduce volatility. Securities are bought in fixed dollar amounts at regular intervals, no matter which way the market is moving. So, as prices rise, fewer shares are bought and when prices fall, more are purchased.
>> This Week’s Forecast
HOME BUILDING, EXISTING HOME SALES, INFLATION, MANUFACTURING...This week's broad look at things economic features July Housing Starts and Building Permits on Tuesday, expected off a little, followed by Thursday's July Existing Home Sales, forecast up, heading back to the 5 million per year level. PPI wholesale inflation and CPI consumer inflation are predicted to stay well within the Fed's guidelines.
We'll also see some key reads on manufacturing, with the Empire State Index for the New York region expected up, but the Philadelphia Fed Index for that area down from the prior month.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of Aug 15 – Aug 19
>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...The Fed's pronouncement after last week's FOMC meeting told us the rate will stay rock bottom for the next two years. Nothing's ever certain, though, so the probability of change stays a smidge above 0. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
Probability of change from current policy:
© 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Inside Lending Newsletter - 8-8-11
>> Market Update
QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Every silver lining has a cloud."--Mary Kay Ash, founder of Mary Kay Cosmetics
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...Last week's silver lining for housing came in the form of mortgage rates, pushed lower by the cloud of financial market turmoil. The average 30-year fixed rate stayed near historic lows, while the average 15-year fixed rate hit a new low for records back to 1991. The average rate for 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) also made a new low for records since 2005. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported purchase loan applications UP 5.1% over the week before and UP 5.9% over a year ago.
But buyers shouldn't be complacent. The latest MBA forecast says rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages could rise the last three months of this year and continue to go up next year. Freddie Mac's Chief Economist sees the housing market "firming," citing CoreLogic's National House Price Index, up three months in a row. Another study showed the number of homes listed for sale in Q2 at its lowest level since 2007. Home values also fell at a slower pace in Q2 and 19 markets showed quarterly gains!
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Focus on the details. Walt Disney himself specified the type of trash can for Disneyland and Steve Jobs obsessed over the trash can icon for the Macintosh. Little things do make a difference.
>> Review of Last Week
THUD!...You can't sugar coat last week's stock market performance, the worst drop in over two years. You also can't come up with a consistent explanation for why investors were so intent on selling. Congress and the President reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and it did have something for everyone. Government spending will still rise this year and continue for the next 10. Yet government size will also shrink, as federal spending is slated to drop by about 2% of GDP in the next 10 years. Some worried the U.S. would lose its AAA credit rating, which finally happened Friday night, but others think that will actually help Washington get fiscally serious.
Bearish Wall Streeters fretted about recession, with lower than expected ISM Manufacturing and Services readings. But these were still both above 50, indicating expansion, 24 months in a row for manufacturing. Personal Income also grew less than expected in June and Personal Consumption dipped a smidge. But in the past year income is UP 5% and spending UP 4.4%. The recessionistas were silenced by Friday's July Employment report -- 117,000 new jobs, plus May/June revisions adding 56,000, for a net gain of 173,000. The one bummer is still Europe. Italy says it's not about to default but investors acted like it might.
For the week, the Dow ended down 5.8%, to 11445; the S&P 500 was down 7.2%, to 1199; and the Nasdaq was down 8.1%, to 2532.
Italian debt probs helped bonds all week, though prices retreated on Friday after Italy said it would speed up fiscal reform if the European Central Bank bought its bonds. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended the week up .98, at $102.16. As covered above, national average mortgage rates headed south for the week, hitting new lows in some cases, in Freddie Mac's weekly survey.
DID YOU KNOW?..."Consumer Discretionary" stocks include companies whose products or services are not necessities, so spending on these items varies by the individual. Examples are hotels, restaurants, high-end clothing, automobiles and luxury goods, and many of these are part of this week's Retail Sales reports.
>> This Week’s Forecast
WHAT WILL THE FED SAY?...With the tepid economy, no one expects the Fed to touch the Funds Rate. But everyone will be carefully analyzing the policy statement coming out of the August 9 FOMC meeting for any indication if new quantitative easing (QE3) might be in the offing -- another massive multi-billion dollar bond buying effort to kick-start the economy.
Observers do expect some positive economic news this week. Increased exports should shrink the June Trade Balance. On the consumer front, July Retail Sales are forecast stronger than a month ago, with and without auto sales.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of Aug 8 – Aug 12
>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...There's a Fed meeting on Tuesday but no one sees a rise in the Funds Rate coming out of it. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
Probability of change from current policy:
-----------
© 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Every silver lining has a cloud."--Mary Kay Ash, founder of Mary Kay Cosmetics
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...Last week's silver lining for housing came in the form of mortgage rates, pushed lower by the cloud of financial market turmoil. The average 30-year fixed rate stayed near historic lows, while the average 15-year fixed rate hit a new low for records back to 1991. The average rate for 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) also made a new low for records since 2005. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported purchase loan applications UP 5.1% over the week before and UP 5.9% over a year ago.
But buyers shouldn't be complacent. The latest MBA forecast says rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages could rise the last three months of this year and continue to go up next year. Freddie Mac's Chief Economist sees the housing market "firming," citing CoreLogic's National House Price Index, up three months in a row. Another study showed the number of homes listed for sale in Q2 at its lowest level since 2007. Home values also fell at a slower pace in Q2 and 19 markets showed quarterly gains!
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Focus on the details. Walt Disney himself specified the type of trash can for Disneyland and Steve Jobs obsessed over the trash can icon for the Macintosh. Little things do make a difference.
>> Review of Last Week
THUD!...You can't sugar coat last week's stock market performance, the worst drop in over two years. You also can't come up with a consistent explanation for why investors were so intent on selling. Congress and the President reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and it did have something for everyone. Government spending will still rise this year and continue for the next 10. Yet government size will also shrink, as federal spending is slated to drop by about 2% of GDP in the next 10 years. Some worried the U.S. would lose its AAA credit rating, which finally happened Friday night, but others think that will actually help Washington get fiscally serious.
Bearish Wall Streeters fretted about recession, with lower than expected ISM Manufacturing and Services readings. But these were still both above 50, indicating expansion, 24 months in a row for manufacturing. Personal Income also grew less than expected in June and Personal Consumption dipped a smidge. But in the past year income is UP 5% and spending UP 4.4%. The recessionistas were silenced by Friday's July Employment report -- 117,000 new jobs, plus May/June revisions adding 56,000, for a net gain of 173,000. The one bummer is still Europe. Italy says it's not about to default but investors acted like it might.
For the week, the Dow ended down 5.8%, to 11445; the S&P 500 was down 7.2%, to 1199; and the Nasdaq was down 8.1%, to 2532.
Italian debt probs helped bonds all week, though prices retreated on Friday after Italy said it would speed up fiscal reform if the European Central Bank bought its bonds. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended the week up .98, at $102.16. As covered above, national average mortgage rates headed south for the week, hitting new lows in some cases, in Freddie Mac's weekly survey.
DID YOU KNOW?..."Consumer Discretionary" stocks include companies whose products or services are not necessities, so spending on these items varies by the individual. Examples are hotels, restaurants, high-end clothing, automobiles and luxury goods, and many of these are part of this week's Retail Sales reports.
>> This Week’s Forecast
WHAT WILL THE FED SAY?...With the tepid economy, no one expects the Fed to touch the Funds Rate. But everyone will be carefully analyzing the policy statement coming out of the August 9 FOMC meeting for any indication if new quantitative easing (QE3) might be in the offing -- another massive multi-billion dollar bond buying effort to kick-start the economy.
Observers do expect some positive economic news this week. Increased exports should shrink the June Trade Balance. On the consumer front, July Retail Sales are forecast stronger than a month ago, with and without auto sales.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of Aug 8 – Aug 12
>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...There's a Fed meeting on Tuesday but no one sees a rise in the Funds Rate coming out of it. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
Probability of change from current policy:
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© 2011 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.
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