INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE Last week was short, but still managed to squeeze in two reports on our favorite topic. Wednesday's New Home Sales for October were down 8.1% from the month before, at an annual rate of 283,000. A slight upward move in these numbers had been forecast. The inventory of new homes edged up to 8.6 months, higher than the 6 month's supply level everyone would like to see.
But Tuesday, October Existing Home Sales came in with a way smaller decline – down just 2.2% from September and in line with expectations. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported the annual sales rate at 4.43 million homes. Actual sales, year to date, are 4.15 million, down 2.9% from the same period a year ago. The NAR's chief economist feels that sales activity appears to be "off the bottom and attempting to settle into normal, sustainable levels." He expects steady improvement to levels "above 5 million by spring of next year." The median existing home price edged down a little to $170,500 and is down only 0.9% from a year ago. The months' supply of existing homes dipped to 10.5 from September's 10.6 reading, as inventories declined overall.
>>> Review of Last Week
A TURKEY FOR WALL STREET... Unfortunately, Thanksgiving week turned out to be a turkey for stock market investors. Stock prices went down following renewed concerns over European debt and North and South Korea lobbing shells at each other across their border. Even though one trading day registered a 150-point gain thanks to some encouraging economic news, three out of the four days were downers, so the Dow and the S&P 500 ended lower for the week, while the Nasdaq eked out a miniscule gain.
With European debt, there are once again fears of contagion, which negatively affected stock markets there and around the world. While Ireland works its bailout with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, worries about Portugal and Spain re-surface. On the home front, a negative Durable Goods Orders reading for October was offset by an upwardly revised 5.0% gain for September. The fall-off in New Home Sales was similarly balanced by Existing Home Sales coming in as expected, covered above.
Encouraging indicators also included Q3 GDP (gross domestic product) getting an upward revision from its initial estimate, to a 2.5% annual growth rate. Improvements in consumer spending and exports drove the solid move up. Initial jobless claims held at under 450,000 for the third week in a row, now down to 407,000. Finally, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment surged to 71.6, more than two points above consensus expectations.
For the week, the Dow was down 1.0%, to 11092.00; the S&P 500 was down 0.9%, to 1189.40; but the Nasdaq was UP 0.7%, to 2534.56.
The bond market benefited from the flight to safety caused by events in Europe and Korea, but there was enough good economic news to put bond prices under pressure. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 8 basis points for the week, closing at $101.09. National average rates for fixed-rate mortgages barely moved last week, according to Freddie Mac's survey of conforming mortgage rates. They are still at historically low levels.
>>> This Week’s Forecast
MORE JOBS, SAME UNEMPLOYMENT RATE... The month ends tomorrow, so Friday brings the November Employment Report and everyone will be looking for signs of hope on the jobs front. Experts predict we'll have another monthly gain in payrolls, although the 130,000 jobs predicted won't be enough to move the unemployment rate down. A jobs recovery is key to the housing recovery, but we're not quite there.
Thursday's Pending Home Sales report for October will give us an idea about existing home sales a couple of months out. No one expects a surge just yet. Manufacturing, however, is forecast to continue its steady expansion, with both Chicago PMI and the ISM Index well north of 50. The ISM Services read also shows growth in the nonmanufacturing sector. Observers are expecting a slight hike in November Consumer Confidence, always a good thing.
>>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of November 29 – December 3
>>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Economists expect the Fed Funds Rate to remain low while the Fed continues its $600 billion bond buying program through the first half of next year. A surge in inflation or in the economic recovery could of course change that. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%:
Probability of change from current policy:
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© 2010 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE The Commerce Department reported last Wednesday that Housing Starts dropped 11.7% in October. This put them at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 519,000, their lowest level in 18 months. But most of the fall off came from a 43.5% decline in multifamily construction, a volatile part of the market. Single-family building, accounting for more than 80% of all starts, was off just 1.1%, to 436,000 units. And September single-family starts were revised UP to a 2.1% gain. Meanwhile, Building Permits, which reflect builders' views of the future, were UP 0.5% to 550,000, another hopeful sign.
National average mortgage rates edged up in both Freddie Mac and Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly reports. The MBA felt rates rose because of "stronger economic data and lingering uncertainty regarding the structure and impact of the Fed's QE2 program." This Fed plan to buy $600 billion in bonds in a second round of quantitative easing was supposed to push rates down, stimulating the economy by making borrowing more affordable. But some investors fear QE2 will spark inflation, which pushes mortgage bond prices down and mortgage rates up. People looking to buy or refinance should probably not drag their feet waiting for lower rates that may never happen.
>>> Review of Last Week
FLAT... The week on Wall Street saw a big drop in stock prices Tuesday, followed by a big gain on Thursday, but when all was said and done, the week ended virtually flat for all three market indexes. This, however, was a big improvement over the prior week's big declines for all the indexes.
Negative influences on the proceedings included the drop in Housing Starts covered above, along with the unexpected rise in mortgage rates after the start of the Fed's bond buying program. But once you got past those items, you had to go overseas to find more downers, which were basically continuations of last week's concerns. Investors don't like Chinese inflation threatening a rise in interest rates over there, or the increasing possibility of a bailout for the Irish banks.
But back over here, we did have some goodies going on. Retail sales were UP 1.2% in October, following a September gain that was upwardly revised to 0.7%. Could other positive economic surprises be on the way? Inflation came in tame, with the Consumer Price Index up just 0.2% for October and Core CPI up only 0.6% year-over-year, the smallest inflation increase in the index's history, dating back to 1957! Initial jobless claims held at under 450,000 for the second week in a row, still too high but showing that the labor market is better than it's been. The General Motors IPO gave back over $13 billion of the money taxpayers put in to prevent a GM bankruptcy.
For the week, the Dow was up just 0.1%, to 11203.55; the S&P 500 was flat, up only a fraction of a point, to 1199.73; and the Nasdaq was also flat, down a fraction of a point, to 2518.12.
The bond market had an up and down week of it, with prices under pressure on some issues at the end. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 89 basis points for the week, closing at $101.17. This downward action in mortgage bond prices sent national average rates for fixed-rate mortgages up a tad for the week, as mentioned above.
>>> This Week’s Forecast
TWO PACKED DAYS... Thanksgiving shortens the week, so a slew of economic reports get packed into Tuesday and Wednesday. We start with Second Estimate Q3 GDP, expected to edge up from the preliminary reading. Existing Home Sales for October should show a slight drop in the annual rate. Also Tuesday, the Minutes of the FOMC meeting of the Fed on November 3, could give more insight into the economic recovery.
Wednesday kicks off with Core PCE Prices, expected to inch up a tad, but still within the Fed's comfort zone for inflation. No need for them to curtail their QE2 bond-buying! Durable Goods Orders are forecast down a little for October, while Initial Unemployment Claims for the week should remain at their currently lower levels. Happily, New Home Sales for October are projected up a tad and let's hope the experts have that right.... Happy Thanksgiving!
>>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of November 22 – November 26
>>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months With last week's CPI readings showing inflation very mild indeed, economists expect the Fed Funds Rate to stay low as the Fed continues its $600 billion bond buying program through the first half of next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%:
Probability of change from current policy:
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© 2010 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.
No matter what your business, having a website is key to growing it. But to get your online marketing rolling, you have to start driving traffic to the site. Here are some things you can do to expand your online exposure.
First, for a little motivation, Google yourself. Put your name inside quotation marks in the Search box and see what comes up. If there's not much there, here's how to boost those results.
Start a Blog. This is just your own take on the things you know about that relate to your services and, most importantly, to the needs of the people you want to reach. There are many free blog platforms you can go with: ActiveRain, Google Blogger, RealTown, Wordpress.com.
• Focus blog content on things that will interest your audience
• Include keywords that relate to your business and where it operates
• Include in each post a photo and links to other resources
• Use widgets and key plug-ins for social networks, email sign up and links
Get a Second Blog Platform. This is for sharing news and events posted elsewhere. You can comment on these things in your blog, but you can't simply cut and paste info from other online sources – it violates copyright law. Check out amplify.com and posterous.com, for a start.
Engage Google. Here are a few things to do:
• Make your Google Profile complete, with links to your sites, blogs and social media profiles
• Use Google Reader to keep up with your industry and do ongoing research
• For timely info and news, set up Google Alerts on yourself, your company, your competition
• Check if the Google Merchant Center might be a good place to promote your business
Fine-Tune Your Facebook. Make sure your profile has a photo and keywords that relate to you and your business. Brand your page with your name like this: facebook.com/johndoebusinessexpert. Brand your business page like your website or blog (there's a fee). Look into Marketplace for promoting what you have to offer. Use RSS to get blog posts to your business page. Tab your other social media, videos, business page.
Leverage LinkedIn. Complete your profile. Get involved in Questions and Answers. RSS your blog to the site. Post books you like. Get yourself a dozen professional recommendations. Add a resume with career accomplishments.
Don't Forget YouTube. Set up a YouTube channel and profile for your business, then post videos on items of interest to your audience. Incorporate visual elements and stay under two minutes. Upload the videos to your blog and share on Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter.
Tweak Twitter. Your 140-character profile needs dead-on focus and a link to your blog or site. Use a photo or avatar. And don't sell – just give links to more information.
All this does take time to set up at the beginning and then work every day. But expand your online presence, and you may very well expand your overall business.
10 reasons to buy
People who are thinking about buying in today's market should check out this piece from the Wall Street Journal.
Have a great month!
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© 2010 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender.
